What are signs that a camera lens price will drop soon?

Question

Gonna lose my mind watching these B&H and Adorama tabs every single morning. I have been staring at the Sony 24-70mm GM II for like three months now and it just wont budge from that 2300 dollar mark. I'm stuck because I have my cousins wedding coming up in Portland this October and I really need a solid mid-range zoom for it. Right now I am torn between just biting the bullet on the Sony GM II or going with the new Sigma 24-70mm Mark II which is way cheaper at 1200.

So my logic was that since the Sigma just came out maybe the Sony price would finally dip to compete but it hasn't happened yet. Like at all. My budget is really pushing it at two grand and honestly even that is making my stomach turn. I keep looking for signs like is there a big trade-in event coming up? Or do these things usually drop right before a new body announcement? I heard rumors about a new A7 camera coming but I dont know if that actually affects lens glass pricing.

I also looked at the Tamron 28-75 G2 as a third option but the build quality just doesnt feel the same for a pro gig like this wedding. If I buy the Sony now and it drops 300 bucks in September I am going to be so pissed off. Are there like specific months where Sony usually does their rebate cycles? I noticed some older lenses got 100 off last week but the flagship stuff stayed exactly the same. Is there a way to tell if stock is getting high or if a retailer is about to dump inventory? I feel like I am playing the stock market but for glass and I am losing lol. Just trying to figure out if I should wait another three weeks or if I am just wasting time while the shipping windows get tighter for my trip...

Haywardmdt · Accepted Answer

Like someone mentioned, waiting on Sony to slash prices on flagship glass usually ends in disappointment. I actually disagree with the strategy of holding out for a rebate cycle right now since you have a hard deadline in October. Flagship lenses like the GM II tend to hold their value incredibly well until a Mark III is announced, which definitely isnt happening anytime soon. If you are worried about that 2300 dollar price tag, there are better ways to handle the budget:Look for open-box or used copies at MPB or KEH Camera where prices usually sit closer to 1900.Seriously reconsider the Sigma Mark II. Its a massive step up from the first version and totally reliable for professional wedding work.Rent the lens from this site for the Portland trip to see if you actually like the weight and handling before dropping two grand. Shipping windows are gonna get tight soon, so I wouldnt gamble on a random September sale that might only be a measly 100 bucks off anyway. Better to just have the gear and get comfortable with it tho.

loveever · Answer

Man, I feel your pain. Watching those B&H tabs daily is a special kind of torture. In my experience, Sony is incredibly stubborn with their flagship GM II pricing. I think they usually do their big rebate pushes in early summer or right before the holidays. Not sure but IIRC, they dont really drop prices just because Sigma releases something new... they know people will pay the GM tax regardless tho. A few things I've noticed over the years when a drop is coming:

Random free gift bundles (like SD cards or filters) start appearing first.

A sudden surge of used copies hitting the market from trade-in events.

Education discounts getting way more aggressive. Honestly, if you're stressed about the October wedding, just get the Sigma. That Mark II is a beast for the money and saves you a grand easily. I'm a big fan of PriceDropCatch for timing my gear upgrades when prices dip.